Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
