Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
